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EU Election System in the UK

Multiple political parties (Greens, Change UK) believe there is no need for Remain parties to coordinate because the election is held under proportional representation. This is wrong, and misunderstands the role of district magnitude

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

District magnitude = number of representatives elected per district/constituency. The magnitude of the regions used for EP elections ranges from 3 (NE England) to 10 (SE England)

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

The smaller the magnitude, the greater the "effective threshold", or vote share required to get elected in that district

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

A rough rule of thumb: the effective threshold is 75%/(m+1), where m is the district magnitude https://t.co/wPof0jFwYo

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

For a ten-seat region, you probably need 75/(10+1)= 6.8% of the vote to get elected. For a three seat region, it's ~19%

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

You cannot (easily) move from these regional thresholds to national thresholds https://t.co/wPof0jFwYo again pic.twitter.com/RJhinUPYWQ

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

But district magnitude (rather than methods of seat allocation like d'Hondt) are what create incentives for parties to coalesce

— Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) April 17, 2019

Effective threshold in electoral systems

The Wealth Share of Top 0.01% in the USA

The wealth share of top 0.01% has reached new highs.

It'll take deep economic and social changes to address the wealth inequality of today https://t.co/5V0FztiLJA pic.twitter.com/9LXj4cy2tl

— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) April 8, 2019

0.01% own 11% (Source: See tweet)
0.99% own 29% (Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung 2019-04-19, p. 8, about Morris Pearl)
19% own 50% (Source: SZ…)
80% own 10% (Source: SZ…)

Inequality measures:
Median: 87.5%
Gini: 77.2%
Plato: 79.7% (Pareto: 89.8%/10.2%)
100%-SOEP: 87.1%
Hoover: 70.0

This just gives a rough idea.

Can We Believe the Polls?

Can we believe the polls? Hard to believe the politicians who so consistently misrepresent them. It all seems to be tending to one answer… let’s find out what people really, unambiguously think: here’s a little film about just that – https://t.co/aGiCHwi6uo

— Stephen Fry (@stephenfry) April 7, 2019

YouTube

It Is Requisite That Great Numbers of People Should Be Ignorant

… in a free Nation where Slaves are not allow’d of, the surest Wealth consists in a Multitude of laborious Poor; for besides that they are the never-failing Nursery of Fleets and Armies, without them there could be no Enjoyment, and no Product of any Country could be valuable. To make the Society happy and People easy under the meanest Circumstances, it is requisite that great Numbers of them should be Ignorant as well as Poor. Knowledge both enlarges and multiplies our Desires, and the fewer things a Man wishes for, the more easily his Necessities may be supply’d.

Bernard Mandeville, The Fable of the Bees or Private Vices, Publick Benefits, 1714

Chicago is suing the Trump administration over its decision to revoke $4 million in STEM education grant funds that were earmarked for schools that predominantly serve poor Hispanic and black students. https://t.co/Mry2sdN0hP pic.twitter.com/9pX4lmKEWZ

— Jon Steingart (@jonsteingart) November 30, 2018

Saudi Kidnap-and-Murder Squad Struck 12 times in 2 Years

News from Donald Trumps’s and Jared Kushner’s business friends:

Think there's no serious reporting anymore?

Article below exposes a Saudi government kidnap-and-murder squad that struck 12 times in 2 years, including murdering @washingtonpost columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Super sophisticated, very costly reporting: https://t.co/iLG6aciqaO

— David Cay Johnston (@DavidCayJ) March 17, 2019

I'm now at the stage where I think if we end up not leaving it'll be a blessing. Let's face it, my side just doesn't deserve it.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

I'm no Remainer, I still dislike the EU and consider it to be undemocratic from top to bottom. I won't campaign for Remain. But I'm sick of being let down and embarrassed by all of this.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

Also I've become very frustrated with myself for the lack of consideration I showed the Northern Ireland issue a few years ago. (More on this at a later date, but I think it's actually symptomatic of something much wider than Brexit)

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

So, I can no longer commit publicly to being a Brexiteer. I'll follow the issue and give my 2 cents, to anybody who might care about my opinion, where I can. But the pursuit for something I now consider unworkable is pointless. I refuse to be driven into madness by it all.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

The UK had to, at some point, face up to this. But its political system just couldn't cope. We fought the referendum like a general election, we triggered A50 without a plan, we never understood how the EU operated nor that Brexit wasn't a standard negotiation.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

It's been self-deception on an almighty scale. At one point I thought, naively, that I could stand as a better example for the Leave side, but I now realise that it's hopeless. I'm never asked for input, the media cares only for those on the extreme. A recipe for disaster.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

I'm quite furious tonight. With general events and with myself. I might open a bottle.

— Oliver Norgrove (@OliverNorgrove) March 12, 2019

Brexit Flow

And as ever high res versions and XML files for draw(dot)io are on my blog here: https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

— Jon Worth (@jonworth) March 6, 2019

Donald Trump isn’t FOR anything. He’s a means of anger direction and white identity expression. There’s literally nothing he does to make life better for anyone besides the ultra-rich and those profiting financially and politically off racial-scapegoating.

— Jared Yates Sexton (@JYSexton) March 3, 2019

Yes, the trend ignited locally with the Tea Party movement, who were against everything and for nothing, offering vague platitudes about being on "the taxpayers' side." It got them elected but even years later they still offer zero substance. Ugh.

— Orange Owl (@orangeowl18) March 3, 2019

I had a conversation last night with counsel of a Fortune 500 company who said that business partners in China told him explicitly that they would not collaborate until Trump was removed from office.

— Dr. Derp (@DizzelW) March 3, 2019

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