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Understanding and Reducing the Spread of Misinformation Online

https://psyarxiv.com/3n9u8/

Understanding and reducing the spread of misinformation online
Authors: Gordon Pennycook, Ziv Epstein, Mohsen Mosleh, Antonio Arechar, Dean Eckles, David Rand
Created on November 13, 2019

Supplemental Materials: https://osf.io/p6u8k/

Accuracy prompts decrease sharing of false and misleading news content
Contributors: Gordon Pennycook, David Rand
Date created: 2019-08-29 12:07 AM

 
Twitter thread by David Rand:

🚨Working paper alert!🚨 "Understanding and reducing the spread of misinformation online"

We introduce a behavioral intervention (accuracy salience) & show in surveys+field exp w >5k Twitter users that it increases quality of news sharinghttps://t.co/GYpg7jGtNk

1/ pic.twitter.com/VilwqQkbxD

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We first ask why people share misinformation. It is because they simply can't assess the accuracy of information?

Probably not!

When asked about accuracy, MTurkers rate true headlines much higher than false. But when asked if theyd share online, veracity has little impact
2/ pic.twitter.com/OIJ04h2Fxb

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

So why this disconnect between accuracy judgments and sharing intentions? Is it that we are in a "post-truth world" and people no longer *care* much about accuracy?

Probably not!

Those same Turkers overwhelmingly say that its important to only share accurate information.
3/ pic.twitter.com/W1UA6VGSBd

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We propose the answer is *distraction*: this accuracy motive is overshadowed in social media context by other motives, e.g. attracting/pleasing followers or signaling group membership. This contrasts w post-truth account where people are aware of (non)veracity but share anyway
4/

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We test these views by making concept of accuracy top-of-mind. If people already recognize whether content is accurate but just don’t care much, accuracy salience should have no effect. But if problem is distraction, then accuracy salience should make people more discerning.
5/

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

In 3 preregistered exps (total N=2775) w MTurkers & ~representative sample, we have subjects in Treatment rate the accuracy of 1 nonpolitical headline at the study's outset. As predicted, this reduces sharing intentions for false (but not true) headlines relative to control.
6/ pic.twitter.com/6xefDGr2ea

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

Finally, we test our intervention "in the wild" on Twitter. We build up a follower-base of users who retweet Breitbart or Infowars. We then send each user a DM asking them to judge the accuracy of a nonpolitical headline (w DM date randomly assigned to allow causal inference)
7/ pic.twitter.com/xNYMJD9rB9

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We quantify quality of their tweets using fact-checker trust ratings of 60 news sites. At baseline, our users share links to quite low-trustworthiness sites – mostly Brietbart, DailyCaller plus Fox. We then compare link quality pre-treatment vs the 24 hrs after receiving DM
8/ pic.twitter.com/z8SQCtmgIm

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We find a significant increase in the quality of news posted after receiving the accuracy-salience DM: 1.4% increase in avg quality, 3.5% increase in summed quality, 2x increase in discernment. Users shift from DailyCaller/Breitbart to NYTimes!
9/ pic.twitter.com/52fAceFUPu

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

We hope these studies will lead to more work in behavioral science on social media sharing & that our Twitter method to more field exps.

We also hope platforms will take note, as our intervention is easily implementable. Could lead to less misinfo w/o centralized censorship!

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

I'm extremely excited about this project, which was led by @GordPennycook @_ziv_e @MohsenMosleh , with further invaluable input from coauthors @AaArechar @deaneckles

Please let us know what you think: comments, critiques, suggestions etc. Thanks!!

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 17, 2019

Because of the nature of our experimental design, we weren't really powered to test for long-term effects. My guess is that it probably didn't last that long – but its a treatment that the platforms could deliver regularly (e.g. with pop-ups in the newsfeed) pic.twitter.com/mxFaPHeeRi

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 19, 2019

Totally agree! And philanthropists could buy ads delivering the treatment to misinfo sharers

— David G. Rand (@DG_Rand) November 19, 2019

 
For RT:

I added @DG_Rand's "Understanding and reducing the spread of misinformation online" thread to my collection of tweets: https://t.co/AAG4adFONQ pic.twitter.com/huEcy7aCqb

— Götz Kluge (@Bonnetmaker) January 12, 2020

Answers to Arron Banks

Twitter sometimes cuts threads. This post makes it easier to connect answers to Arron Banks to tweets of Arron Banks.

As Yellowhammer documents showed at weekend – Ports /Tunnel say that they are ready. But what they mean is they are ready to process correct paperwork/ electronic registration of tens of thousands of exporters who have never needed to. Disruption arises if traders not prepped…

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) August 21, 2019

 
Arron Banks:

We managed to arrange the evacuation of 100,000’s troops from a beach in France using thousands of small craft , under massive military pressure , in a few days but we can’t fill in a few new forms in 2019… https://t.co/sCeKRo6YPj

— Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) August 22, 2019

 
Two answers to Arron Banks:

We? Dunkirk happened 20+ years before you were born and thousands were killed.

— Sen. Neale Richmond (@nealerichmond) August 22, 2019

EU now pointing out what was clear in their guidance from March – UK EORI numbers will not be valid in EU after No Deal. So tens of thousands of UK traders also need to register in France, mainly, separately to auto-enrollment from HMRC announced this week https://t.co/dt4iwDZzyW

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) August 23, 2019

 
Arron Banks goes on:

“We” being the British. Ireland may have resigned itself to the status of a minor EU colony but WE are not European. You sold your country for €60 blllion net income & all the politicians bought and sold. Trump in the market for real estate deals , he loves Ireland 🇮🇪! https://t.co/YaKx3b97YZ

— Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) August 23, 2019

 
Another answer to Arron Banks:

When Ireland left the UK it was destitute. 20 years after joining the EU, Ireland was the Celtic Tiger and now with Sweden has a higher average income than the USA. New members Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania and Romania are among the fastest growing economies in the world. pic.twitter.com/9vqw5pLMFy

— QuantumChoices #FBPE 🔶️ (@tfoale) August 23, 2019

A Map for Boris Johnson’s Supporters

https://t.co/zjThtOIbP5

001 “Just the place for a Snark!” the Bellman cried,
002  As he landed his crew with care;
003 Supporting each man on the top of the tide
004  By a finger entwined in his hair.

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

005 “Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:
006  That alone should encourage the crew.
007 Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:
008  What I tell you three times is true.”

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

https://t.co/VqsowjT3A6

093 He had bought [from Cummings] a large map representing the sea,
094  Without the least vestige of land:
095 And the crew were much pleased when they found it to be
096  A map they could all understand.

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

An here is the Bellman's map: https://t.co/c0OG29IHIA pic.twitter.com/CCWDZiqpOa

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

097 “What’s the good of Mercator’s North Poles and Equators,
098  Tropics, Zones, and Meridian Lines?”
099 So the Bellman would cry: and the crew would reply
100  “They are merely conventional signs!

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

101 “Other maps are such shapes, with their islands and capes!
102  But we’ve got our brave Captain to thank:
103 (So the crew would protest) “that he’s bought us the best—
104  A perfect and absolute blank!”

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

105 This was charming, no doubt; but they shortly found out
106  That the Captain they trusted so well
107 Had only one notion for crossing the ocean,
108  And that was to tingle his bell.

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

109 He was thoughtful and grave—but the orders he gave
110  Were enough to bewilder a crew.
111 When he cried “Steer to starboard, but keep her head larboard!”
112  What on earth was the helmsman to do?

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

113 Then the bowsprit got mixed with the rudder sometimes:
114  A thing, as the Bellman remarked,
115 That frequently happens in tropical climes,
116  When a vessel is, so to speak, “snarked.”

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

117 But the principal failing occurred in the sailing,
118  And the Bellman, perplexed and distressed,
119 Said he had hoped, at least, when the wind blew due East,
120  That the ship would not travel due West!

-> https://t.co/brWZiWUkIq pic.twitter.com/UgoGsUapDV

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 8, 2019

Snark for Conservatives

(01) Talking about "tea break".

“Its habit of getting up late you’ll agree
That it carries too far, when I say
That it frequently breakfasts at five-o’clock tea,
And dines on the following day.

That's from "The Hunting of the Snark", recently mentioned by Boris Johnson.

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(02) Yes, Boris Johnson knows (the title of) "The Hunting of the Snark". https://t.co/DQn5TEmNES

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(03) Back to tea time: "The Hunting of the Snark" is about exploring an island where the Snark frequently breakfasts at five-o’clock tea. That could be in Tahiti, where Charles Darwin breakfasted during tea time in the UK. https://t.co/Ic0GBpdnjn https://t.co/GdauVCOuKG

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(04) "The Hunting of the Snark" »may be taken as an Allegory for the Pursuit of Happiness. The characteristic “ambition” works well into this theory … that the pursuer of happiness … betakes himself… the happiness he has failed to find elsewhere.« https://t.co/dNG7zzOkpp pic.twitter.com/QIXbt6Nmsk

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(05) The pursuit of happiness happens in many ways. One way is to just get the Brexit done. In the end, however, you might meet the Boojum. https://t.co/jMDyeDURcv pic.twitter.com/pPJkqC72jn

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(06) ※ Henry Holiday’s illustration to fit #8 in Lewis Carroll’s "The Hunting of the Snark" (1876).
※ "Faiths Victorie in Romes Crueltie" (publ. by Thomas Jenner, c. 1630). To the right side of the fire, Thomas Cranmer is depicted burning his hand.https://t.co/te6VHQ9aVd pic.twitter.com/3HmnV0QrES

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(07) Yes, on the British islands the pursuit of happiness often enough made many people quite unhappy. Some of them even got killed. It seems to be a never ending tragedy. https://t.co/63Coc5qSOa

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 6, 2019

(08) Bellman Johnson will support each British man (and woman even more so) by a finger entwined in his hair. But whose hair is that? If it is the Bellman's hair, what kind of finger might the Bellman be using to control the big British Snark hunting crew? pic.twitter.com/hbPEhSw5gc

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(09) The British elite wants to take back control from the EU, turning perceived abuse by the EU into domestic abuse. To that elite the Brexit also is an instrument to make money with investing in shorts. May the Bandersnatch grab those bankers. https://t.co/jNh21qKTkJ pic.twitter.com/pjeSWQFmVc

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(10) https://t.co/g2QDaSw3V7 pic.twitter.com/42goKKLIs5

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(11) Now let's prove that Boris won 2:0 against Jeremy:

> #! /usr/bin/haskell
> import Data.List
> assertions :: [String]
> assertions =
> ["Boris won 2:0"
> ,"6 * 7 = 39"
> ,"6 * 7 = 42"
> ,"6 * 7 = 39"
> ,"Boris won 2:0"
> ,"6 * 7 = 39"
> ,"Boris won 2:0"
> ]

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(12) We apply the Bellman's rule:

> atLeastThrice :: [String] -> [String]
> atLeastThrice assList =
> [head grp | grp <-
> group $ sort assList, length grp >= 3]

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(13) Result (if loaded and executed in GHCi):

*Main> atLeastThrice assertions
["6 * 7 = 39","Boris won 2:0"]

What I tell you three times is true. (The lower 16% of the people with – according to Boris – an IQ at or below 85% might need more than that.)

— Snark Sesquicentennial (@Snark150) December 7, 2019

(to be continued)

Wolves and Sheep

That speech was delivered on occasion of the 2013 annual Margaret Thatcher lecture (Centre for Policy Studies "think tank") where Boris fostered "the spirit of envy". https://t.co/GyXdrg1oN7

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 7, 2019

Based on his assumption that 16% "of our species" have an IQ below 85 and 2% have an IQ above 130%, Boris Johnson's GE2019 strategy is to address the gullible 16% just with simple slogans in order to give back control to the 2% elite, to which probably Dominic Cummings belongs.

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 7, 2019

That's what Brexit is about: With simple messages to the dumber part of the voters, a small local elite takes back control from the EU over the future fags of these Eaton boys. And the sheepish 16% are playing along very well. That's how wolves win. (Cartoon by @PaulNoth) pic.twitter.com/nYmIE19zn1

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 7, 2019

Now Boris Johnson is close to reaching his goal. Leavers felt abused by the EU. Boris Johnson will turn it into domestic abuse.https://t.co/dUBa0cnT6s https://t.co/M1oPaz2KF8

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 7, 2019

 

Found later:

This is Johnson giving the annual Thatcher lecture in *2013*
just after he'd been re-elected as London Mayor, with his #GoodChap whiff-whaff social-liberal-really shtick
Notice the mix here too

He's shown us who he is for a looong time#JohnsonLies https://t.co/ZGDLye1itq

— Bella Vivat (Dr)🕷 ⚫️ #RevokeA50 #NHSLove #KONP (@Bellavivat) December 7, 2019

 

By the way:

Searching for »(Inequality AND "Boris Johnson")« in Twitter is interesting in these days.

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 8, 2019

IMO a "Scandinavian" income inequality with a Gini index around 0.25 contributes to happiness in a society. Perfect equality as well as income inequalities above, say, 0.5 could explain a desire for violent redistribution of resources.

— Буджумы правят волнами Британии (@Bonnetmaker) December 8, 2019

Quoting Tocqueville

Ivanka Trump tried to quote Alexis de Tocqueville.

“A decline of public morals in the United States will probably be marked by the abuse of the power of impeachment as a means of crushing political adversaries or ejecting them from office.”

Alexis de Tocqueville, 1835

— Ivanka Trump (@IvankaTrump) November 21, 2019


 

"Don't believe everything you read on the Internet."

Julius Caesar, 1655

— JRehling (@JRehling) November 22, 2019

Not only is that a bogus quote, but the Founders specifically understood the role of impeachment to prevent what your family has managed to do with a complicit and pliant GOP.

— lawhawk (@lawhawk) November 22, 2019

…this is not something Alexis de Tocqueville penned. The actual quote comes from a 1889 book, American Constitutional Law, Volume 1, by judge John Innes Clark Hare describing the necessity of impeachment, even as he argued it had been abused on President Andrew Johnson.

— DJ TrippyDawg (@craigstanford) November 22, 2019


 

Quote (with changed layout in order to improve readability) from Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America (1835), Chapter VII: Political Jurisdiction In The United States, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/815/815-h/815-h.htm#link2HCH0015:

[…] But I will venture to affirm that it is precisely their mildness which renders the American laws most formidable in this respect.

We have shown that in Europe the removal of a functionary and his political interdiction are the consequences of the penalty he is to undergo, and that in America they constitute the penalty itself. The consequence is that in Europe political tribunals are invested with rights which they are afraid to use, and that the fear of punishing too much hinders them from punishing at all.

But in America no one hesitates to inflict a penalty from which humanity does not recoil. To condemn a political opponent to death, in order to deprive him of his power, is to commit what all the world would execrate as a horrible assassination; but to declare that opponent unworthy to exercise that authority, to deprive him of it, and to leave him uninjured in life and limb, may be judged to be the fair issue of the struggle.

But this sentence, which it is so easy to pronounce, is not the less fatally severe to the majority of those upon whom it is inflicted. Great criminals may undoubtedly brave its intangible rigor, but ordinary offenders will dread it as a condemnation which destroys their position in the world, casts a blight upon their honor, and condemns them to a shameful inactivity worse than death.

The influence exercised in the United States upon the progress of society by the jurisdiction of political bodies may not appear to be formidable, but it is only the more immense. It does not directly coerce the subject, but it renders the majority more absolute over those in power; it does not confer an unbounded authority on the legislator which can be exerted at some momentous crisis, but it establishes a temperate and regular influence, which is at all times available. If the power is decreased, it can, on the other hand, be more conveniently employed and more easily abused.

By preventing political tribunals from inflicting judicial punishments the Americans seem to have eluded the worst consequences of legislative tyranny, rather than tyranny itself; and I am not sure that political jurisdiction, as it is constituted in the United States, is not the most formidable weapon which has ever been placed in the rude grasp of a popular majority. When the American republics begin to degenerate it will be easy to verify the truth of this observation, by remarking whether the number of political impeachments augments.*d

[…]

d
[ See Appendix, N.

[The impeachment of President Andrew Johnson in 1868—which was resorted to by his political opponents solely as a means of turning him out of office, for it could not be contended that he had been guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, and he was in fact honorably acquitted and reinstated in office—is a striking confirmation of the truth of this remark.—Translator’s Note, 1874.]] […]

 

Appendix N, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/816/816-h/816-h.htm#link2H_APPEn:

There is no question upon which the American constitutions agree more fully than upon that of political jurisdiction. All the constitutions which take cognizance of this matter, give to the House of Delegates the exclusive right of impeachment; excepting only the constitution of North Carolina, which grants the same privilege to grand juries. (Article 23.) Almost all the constitutions give the exclusive right of pronouncing sentence to the Senate, or to the Assembly which occupies its place.

The only punishments which the political tribunals can inflict are removal, or the interdiction of public functions for the future. There is no other constitution but that of Virginia (p. 152), which enables them to inflict every kind of punishment.
※ The crimes which are subject to political jurisdiction are, in the federal constitution (Section 4, Art. 1); in that of Indiana (Art. 3, paragraphs 23 and 24); of New York (Art. 5); of Delaware (Art. 5), high treason, bribery, and other high crimes or offences.
※ In the Constitution of Massachusetts (Chap. I, Section 2); that of North Carolina (Art. 23); of Virginia (p. 252), misconduct and maladministration.
※ In the constitution of New Hampshire (p. 105), corruption, intrigue, and maladministration.
※ In Vermont (Chap. 2, Art. 24), maladministration.
※ In South Carolina (Art. 5); Kentucky (Art. 5); Tennessee (Art. 4); Ohio (Art. 1, 23, 24); Louisiana (Art. 5); Mississippi (Art. 5); Alabama (Art. 6); Pennsylvania (Art. 4), crimes committed in the non-performance of official duties.
※ In the States of Illinois, Georgia, Maine, and Connecticut, no particular offences are specified.

Давай сделаем бре́кcит!

This was charming, no doubt; but they shortly found out
That the Captain they trusted so well
Had only one notion for crossing the ocean,
And that was to tingle his bell.https://t.co/QMfZkL0mJ3https://t.co/KFJB0HMKON pic.twitter.com/4aL2v7RQsS

— Goetz Kluge (@Bonnetmaker) November 22, 2019

Давай сделаем бре́кcит!

— Goetz Kluge (@Bonnetmaker) November 22, 2019

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