Tag: Brexit

THREAD WARNING: This thread is entitled "How to outthink a Brexiter". It works equally well in debunking (or perhaps proving) any belief-based ideas. It's based on a logical method for working out the right answer to many problems.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Brexiters have their own "facts", carefully cherry-picked and with plausible'-sounding rationalisations. However, it's all built on sand. I'm going to teach you how to out-argue a brexiter using facts and logic.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

It's called "The Scientific Method", but you don't have to have any scientific background to use it. It's a way of thinking about things to come to the right answer. Just follow the method. A little practice and you’ll be able to win any argument with a brexiter.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

The Enlightenment philosophers like David Hume, Rosseau and Adam Smith used it to understand morality. Yes, there is a logical basis to morality – you don't have to be religious to be moral, and if often helps if you aren't.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Lets start with an example. There's a well-known business book called Good To Great, which identified the characteristics of good companies that became great. A worldwide bestseller, used by business coaches everywhere. Only one problem – it was based on bad statistical analysis.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

The author only looked at winners, not losers. He didn't eliminate the possibility that companies that didn't meet his criteria for greatness had also adopted the same methods. It's called survivor bias, one of many cognitive biases we are prone to. https://t.co/26oBggDbWG

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

One of the very few scientific analysis-based business authors, Clayton Christensen (The Innovators Dilemma, Seeing What's Next) provides a good description of good analysis. Start with a theory, then attempt to DISPROVE it. pic.twitter.com/fvDHtz5TOO

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Here is the scientific method in a flowchart. Start at the top and follow the arrows. If there's more than one arrow leaving a box, that's a test. pic.twitter.com/0eWnPvdRVR

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

I do this with EVERY reason that Brexiters come up with. I assume that their theory is TRUE, then look for evidence to disprove it. What Brexiters do is called "confirmation bias" – they only look for things that prove their contention. It's just poor analysis.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

I look for comparison data across the EU, or across the G7 or world if that's relevant. So I could start with the theory that the EU is a dictatorship, compare it with dictatorships across the world and decide no, there is never a process for leaving a dictatorship by letter.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Definitions are important. First, define your terms. For instance, people have different definitions of "socialist", "liberal" and "centrist". Make sure that you have a good reference for the definition you are using. You don't have to agree on a definition, just be clear on it.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Brexiters believe that the EU is going to federalise. So, lets assume that there is a proposal for federalisation. What has to happen for every member state to vote for federalisation?

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Every state has a veto over changes to sovereignty, including FTA's; the logic of the veto is that if a change was proposed that didn't benefit EVERY member state, those who wouldn't benefit would use their veto.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

So, in order to federalise, every state would have to vote to give up their veto. However, then they couldn't prevent negative things happening, so the states will not vote for it. Therefore, the EU cannot federalise, even if some EU chiefs have proposed it. Theory disproved.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Another Brexiter theory is that the EU has high tariffs that block trade with the rest of the world. Thanks to @Jim_Cornelius for this chart, which proves, using an independent organisation, that the EU's REAL tariffs are the lowest in the world. Again, theory disproved. pic.twitter.com/eNpN3khDFv

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Once a theory is disproved, then we create another theory that explains the facts. Those who want to continue to believe, despite the evidence, are driven deeper and deeper into creating ever-more complex conspiracy theories to justify their beliefs.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Oh, and the 11 "Great" companies in Good To Great? They did much worse than the stock market after the book was published.https://t.co/X9Dw23npP6

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

Now, I'm sure many Brexiters will want to try to use the scientific method to prove they are right, and I welcome that. It's how we come to consensus on what is correct, and what isn't. Rational thinking should be the basis of all teaching.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018

If you want to find out more about rational thinking and how to avoid the cognitive biases that lead to incorrect decisions, conflict and argument, I recommend https://t.co/fNm7Tc36Oo.

— QuantumChoices #FBPE #ABTV (@tfoale) October 20, 2018